I have said repeatedly over the years that I won’t give an industry wide dollar estimate of ad fraud. This is as a result of I do not have complete data. Neither does anyone else. Everyone sees only a slice of the universe, both in amount of impressions, and type demonstrate ads, video ads, CTV/OTT ads, etc. So ANY estimate of industry wide ad fraud is inaccurate as a result of the gross assumptions, approximations, and extrapolations that have to be done to estimate it.
At the very least, eMarketer in 2019 cited a range, “$6. 5 billion to as high as $19 billion, a variety that points to the issue in measuring fraud’s true impact. ” But if we review estimates from others, that you could simply see it is in every single place, both in dollar and in rate. Another key problem with estimating the dollar impact of ad fraud is that you don’t know what you do not know. That means, you don’t know if you bought it all all the fraud, it really is. Every year, we see new discoveries of ad fraud that was there all along, except that the nice guys didn’t even comprehend it was occurring.
Bad guys find new ways to steal ad budgets, and they’re incredible at masking their tracks. This is akin to the phenomenon of “zero days” in cybersecurity. A “zero day” is a new vulnerability that has been found for the first time by the good guys. But that security vulnerability has been there all along, and exploited by the bad guys while final hidden. Enormous quantities of ad fraud go undetected simply as a result of good guys’ detection tech was either not searching for it didn’t know to look for it or was browsing but got tricked by the bots into not marking it as invalid or fraudulent.
The TL;DR is that using round numbers, out of the $100 billion spent in the U. S. on digital commercials, about $10 billion can be accounted for, as spent with big, official publishers that you simply doubtless admire like Hearst, Conde’ Nast, Meredith, NY Times, etc. The other $90 billion goes to ads that went somewhere else. We don’t have to call it fraud; we just say it went somewhere apart from where most humans go. If we examine the amount of impressions, in its place of dollar quantities, we can easily see that the collective long tail sites that sell stock via ad exchanges can generate 10s of trillions of ad impressions, while mainstream good publishers have finite human audiences that don’t expand or agreement greater than 1% year over year.
So, using round numbers, the ratio is 1% of impressions comes from good publishers, while any other 99% of impressions come from elsewhere. Again we do not have to name it fraud; it’s just that the ads went in other places where we likely can’t measure for fraud, viewability, and brand safety completely or appropriately. About Me: “I check with for advertisers and publishers who in reality are looking to know the truth and who’ve the courage to do something once they find ad fraud. I am not a fraud detection tech company that is dependent upon fraud to proceed. I show my consumers the helping data to allow them to take note and verify for themselves what is fraud and what is not fraud.
If they agree, they may be able to take the essential activities to eradicate the fraud while campaigns are still running, in preference to post mortem fraud experiences and looking to get their a refund.