An analysis and prediction model of outsiders percentage as a new popularity metric on Instagram ScienceDirect

In this analysis, a new Instagram popularity metric was defined, i. e. outsiders percentage OP of a post. Outsiders are non fans who liked a user’s post.

It was found that OP is the most positive metric if in comparison to engagement rate and fans growth. Regression models were tested for predicting OP, using facets from user data, post data, hashtag, engagement, and image sentiment. The prediction accuracy R2, reached up to 71. 9% using Random Forest. This analysis also analyzed the fad of every characteristic against the OP. It was found that hashtag usage is the most important factor in elevating OP.

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